Joshua Carlson’s book is a solid contribution to the literature on space power at a time when space travel and space power are becoming prominent topics, both in the United States and abroad.
Carlson notes that the United States has a choice: cast off the business-as-usual complacency toward space that was a leftover from the 1990s and get serious about having a strong presence in space, or get used to taking orders from China. Carlson uses several examples of Chinese expansion on Earth to pound home the point that China cannot be trusted to not use space travel against the United States.
Carlson’s space development theory provides an excellent framework for thinking about why a strong presence in space will be important to the security and prosperity of the United States. He breaks it down into exploration, expansion, exploitation, and exclusion. That last is where armed conflict is likely to break out, because the point of exclusion is to keep someone else out of a given area, whether through deterrence or the use of force. Other powers might not take kindly to being excluded from, for example, the LaGrange points, or areas on the Moon or Mars or the Asteroid Belt which might have exploitable minerals. Carlson correctly notes that the United States has been the leader of exploration of space, but has remained stuck at exploration. Yes, the crew of Apollo 11 planted the U.S. flag on the Moon on July 20, 1969, but that won’t matter if that flag isn’t defended by a robust U.S. presence on the Moon. While private ventures in space such as SpaceX and Blue Origin are part of the reason why space is becoming more prominent, Carlson correctly notes that companies in space will work with China if China becomes the leader in space expansion and exploitation. They won’t have a choice.
Carlson outlines two scenarios exploring how the race for space might turn out. In one, the United States ends up at the mercy of China because the United States does not take space exploration, exploitation, and exclusion seriously enough. In another, the United States prevails because it takes these three concepts seriously. He notes that China has thought more carefully through the value of control of space than the United States. “The space competition between the US and China is neither academic nor inconsequential,” warns Carlson. Carlson also looks at how space war might be waged. It will not look like anything out of Star Trek or Star Wars. No warp drive, no Death Star, no cloaking devices, no transporters; but there will be missiles, lasers, ships propelled by nuclear energy, electronic warfare, and space carriers – large ships hosting small ships.
The sad part is that American authors such as Robert Heinlein and Jerry Pournelle had the vision to see the importance of American expansion into and exploitation of space, but that they were unable to persuade those in power of the importance of this vision. They would both be alarmed at the growth of Chinese power and the complacency in the United States. In Spacepower Ascendant, Joshua Carlson has taken up the banner of these visionary authors and produced his own visionary work that they would both enjoy reading. Let us hope that this book will be read and acted upon in Washington D.C. It is almost certainly being read in Beijing.